In South Sudan, the fateful date of May 12 is approaching. On that day, according to the peace agreement signed in September to end the civil war, Riek Machar must return to the country to become first vice-president. But the rebel leader is refusing to return for now, saying that security conditions are not in place and that the agreement has accumulated too much delay.

On May 12, if all goes well, Riek Machar will return to Juba. A new unity government will be appointed, and a three-year transition period will open until new elections.

But nothing is less certain. Riek Machar is requesting a six-month delay before his return because, according to him, his security is not guaranteed. It will be remembered that in 2016, the rebel leader had to flee the capital under gunfire from the army, signaling the failure of the previous peace agreement.

Logistical and Financial Problems

Moreover, the force tasked with protecting VIPs, notably from the opposition, must comprise 700 men drawn from the national army and rebel groups. Their training began Friday, but without the opposition.

The SPLM-IO, Riek Machar's party, is demanding that this force comprise 10,000 to 12,000 elements. Impossible, the government responds, due to logistical and financial problems.

Serious Delays

The peace agreement has nonetheless accumulated serious delays in all areas: formation of a unified army, creation of institutions, and delimitation of federal borders. But President Kiir is refusing for now to modify the timeline. "Any delay would destroy the peace hopes of our people and would be an act of bad faith," the head of state declared.

The sub-regional authority Igad called for negotiations on Thursday and Friday. Riek Machar has already promised to participate.